Three reasons why I think we’re Better Together.
With less than 100 days till the Scottish independence referendum the bookies are quoting odds that are very much in favour of Better Together. Yet somehow, this still feels like the most important single vote I’ve ever been involved in. In 1979, it was clear that Scotland wasn’t going to vote for independence, whereas today I think it may be extremely close.
This is such an important issue, it’s not like a General Election where we can change our mind next time around. We need to get it right and preferably in a decisive way, so that there is no doubt about the ‘settled will of the people’.
I’ve got a lot of good friends who intend to vote ‘Yes’ and despite being a very proud Scot I’ve never been convinced. So over the last few months, I’ve gone back and questioned myself about what’s the right decision to make and is there anyway I could be persuaded to vote ‘Yes’.
At the start, there was part of me who might have been persuaded by the argument for independence, but having taken time to examine the issues I’m now very firmly in the Better Together camp.
My own experience is that friends who will vote Yes are, on the whole, much more vocal and passionate than the majority of people I speak to, who quietly say they would prefer not to break-up the UK. I understand that of Scotland’s four million or so voters in September, around one million are as yet undecided. I think those of us who believe in the Better Together argument need to speak up more and so I’ve decided for the first time in my life to publicly align myself with a political campaign.
Why Better Together? The main three reasons are:
- Political
- Economic
- Cultural & social
Political
Firstly, I feel I need to discount all the short-term arguments about current politicians and political parties. We are looking at taking a decision about a long-term future and dissolving a 300 year union. So ultimately the question is will independence give us increased political control to make a difference? The answer is linked to the economic argument, but also our influence on the European and world stage. Putting aside the debate about actually getting into Europe, an independent Scotland in Europe would be a small country with almost no influence and therefore less control. Things happen in Europe when the big countries want them to and the UK is the 6th biggest economy in the world (by GDP) and third in Europe. It has influence and Scotland at the moment can make some impact through the UK. (We can debate whether we, the UK, use that influence wisely, but being independent doesn’t guarantee wisdom in the future. So not an argument for ‘Yes’.)
I also think we are still on the journey of devolving powers to Scotland and don’t see the need to risk the break-up of the UK and the privileges this gives us.
Economic
This is perhaps the clearest area for me. We are part of a single market of 62 million people in the UK. The business I work in does almost 90% of it’s business in the rest of the UK, why would I want to create borders and barriers to that trade and all the other Scottish businesses that are required to bring prosperity. We can’t rely on oil for long-term future prosperity and I think that UK market has benefited Scotland over the years. London, does suck wealth to the South as it is a major global city, but being independent won’t change that reality. All the major world cities are becoming mini-states and causing problems for surrounding areas. This is an issue for English regions as much as Scotland.
The biggest issue for me is the currency. We trade, in the main, with the rest of the UK so the pound is perfect. The Euro is discredited and still has structural problems, so that’s not an option. (Side issue, if an Independent Scotland joined Europe would we need to join the Euro? We don’t know.)
So assuming we want to keep the pound, there are two options open to an independent Scotland:
- Monetary union with the rest of the UK. A monetary union means sharing decisions and actually pulls you towards a political union (this seems counter intuitive, if we’ve just voted for independence) and as the small partner with only 10% of currency, do we think the other 90% are going to let us make decisions on tax and spending that have an adverse impact on them? The UK would under this arrangement then provide the central bank to underwrite debts of Scotland’s banks and Scottish government borrowing. So as independent country, we’d be seeking approval for our plans, but without any vote. Less control and less security than we have at the moment.
- The other option of shadowing the pound is even worse, as you then don’t have a central bank to act as the lender of last resort and as a result Scotland’s financial services sector (currently 12 times the size of Scotland’s GDP) could very well collapse, with a huge impact on the economy.
I also can’t find a way to justify the huge unspecified cost of independence which we’d all have to pay. As a vanity project, it would make the Edinburgh trams project appear eminently sensible!
Cultural and social
I think we underestimate the ties that bind the UK together. Go back to the summer of 2012 and look at the impact that the Olympics had and the sense of belonging that so many people had in the sporting achievements of all our British athletes. Even before the games started, I was particularly surprised by the great reception the Olympic torch got as it toured Scotland, people wanted to be part of this British event. Yes, our English neighbours can have a very English centric view of the country, but I suspect our own countrymen and woman in the more remote parts of Scotland think the same of the central belt and Edinburgh.
Lastly, I think Scotland has a proud tradition of engaging with the world and having a massive influence. We have fully participated at all levels in the UK and ideas from Scotland have helped shaped democracy across the world. I want us to be part of a confident nation that continues to engage and influence for the good and I think you do that from inside the UK and not by withdrawing. A truly confident Scotland will face the reality of being a small nation on the edge of Europe by relishing the challenge and stepping forward to play it’s part in the UK and Europe.
Peter Casebow
8 June 2014
